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Latvia 2016: The Gathering Storm

2016 is heading for closure and it’s time to set the record what happened this year and what to expect of next 12 months. Many has called 2016 as one of the worst years in the decades. It was time of rather unexpected events, sad events and tragic events. While Latvia overall had mostly peaceful year it all can change basing on all the events that happened abroad. The country is planning to spend 60 million euros on 100th anniversary on independence on 2018. Two years are still in wait for that. But, these two years are could be the most crucial for our country and might as well determine will Latvia be able to mark its 100 years of independence at all. For there is a danger that in 2-3 years Latvia might lose its independence and sovereignty. In this review it will be explained why this can happen and what could we do to prevent it.

 

The weakening of the West and its impact on Latvia

 

Two most crucial events that will go down in history of 2016 will be the Brexit and US Presidential election. Both events weakened UK, EU and US on political and economic scale. It revealed a wide fraction of society in US and EU that is not satisfied with politics of the liberal and leftist elites that had ruled for last 20 years and has given their votes for populism, far right clinging politics and authoritarian style of politics. Their dissatisfaction with current so called establishment is both rational and irrational and is based on their personal experiences and misfortunes. Despite the obvious Russian meddling and support for these movements it’s clear that they have strong support base and these movements have managed to strike on both of UK and US and that is bad news for our country. Firstly as UK has yet to make the crucial step to leave EU there is plenty of speculation of how it will affect the thousands of Latvian guest workers in UK, how it will affect the EU market and what impact it will leave on our economy. So far UK has kept its solid position in NATO, the new foreign minister Boris Johnson is widely critical on Russian criminal foreign policy (regarding his past warm connections with Russia), but we will see how this will change after new elections 2020 that is however a long wait from now. In US the situation has become unpredictable every day. The country has been affected by Russian secret service orchestrated hacking that helped Donald J. Trump to win, who has high expectations of friendship with Russian leader Vladimir Putin and who has shown disregard to NATO and the defense of Europe. Donald Trump runs his politics as reality show, every day feeding twitter with his outlandish tweets and load announcements and claims. He has made US unpredictable just as Russia has been for years. From words to actions he has appointed an oil cooperation CEO Rex Tillerson as State Secretary who of no doubt is in unfavor of  Russian containment policy that means sanctions against his business partners and low oil prices. Judging by the logic of business not politics his and Trumps decision in 2017 would be full or partial   removal of sanctions against Russia.

For Latvia this means a dangerous return to diplomatic situation of 1938-1940. Back then Latvia had no real allies. UK and France was distant and skeptical about their support for Baltic States against Nazi Germany and Soviet Union. In the end the fate of Latvia was determined by Nazi Germany and Soviet Union, both of whom Latvia had signed non-aggression pacts. Left without support from outside it was forced to choose between bloody war of survival or shameful silent submission. It choose the second option and we still bear the bitter fruits of that. Russia is aiming to repeat this once again. We really cannot predict Trump’s politics – will he remove sanctions, minimize US involvement in NATO and drop pledge to defend every each of them? Or the Trumps expectations of Putin and Putin of Trump would end in mutual disappointment and confrontation would again increase? Then there is more hardly calculable factors in Europe that threaten to create this situation – first its elections in France that would bring right-wing leader Marine le Pen or François Fillon to power. Both has shown their open sympathy to Russia and suggesting the ease of relations on expense of Ukraine and Baltic States. Then there is Germany – Angela Merkel has been in power for 11 years and her leadership is fading in light of integration failure, refugee failure and recent terrorist act. In 2017 she faces Federal Elections. Again her competitors is making criticism on relations with Russia. If both of these countries drop the Russian containment policy the diplomatic and security position of Latvia would severely weaken.

Let’s be clear however, while Germany and France can be still called reliable allies for the Baltic States they are certainly no friends for Ukraine. The so-called Minsk ceasefire that has not been in effect since its implementation, brokered both by Holland and Merkel has made Eastern Ukraine into active frozen conflict where lives are lost almost daily on both sides without much achievements or changes. “No change on the Eastern Ukrainian Front” one would say. The constant bleed out of Ukraine only serves the Russia. US and EU is giving Ukraine both carrot and stick. A carrot of some humanitarian or non-lethal military support on basis of not breaking ceasefire and stick of continuing criticism and pushover for lack of reforms in the country that is not entirely unjustified. But such situation cannot last forever, Ukraine has to strike back and regain villages and cities used as bases for constant attacks on Ukrainian positions. And who to judge Ukraine for doing so – it’s their land, that has been captured by foreign country disguised as separatists. The ones who will judge will be wealthy European countries who does not have an open border with Russia – yet.

So both for Ukraine and the Baltic States a situation can be possible in next two years when they have no allies. One ally could still be Poland. While it’s rigged with inner political struggle between nationalistic government and liberal opposition, its shows a stiff opposition to Russia and calls for militarization and tough response. If Finland or Sweden would join the NATO, with their proximity to Russia they may show reliance to Baltic States. But, if UK, Germany and France would drop out of collective security policy and most important the US than Latvia as well as Poland is in danger. The very aim of Russia is to defeat the NATO adversary without a fight. A direct conflict could end in bitter destructive defeat. So the proper aim for Russia is the break up the collective security, contribute to the election of Russia friendly candidates that may allow another Molotov-Ribbentrop pact. A pact that would give Russia a free hand on Ukraine and Baltic States. Our political and military leaders have vowed to not repeat the mistake of 1939-1940 and resist, but will this wove would be kept knowing of low or confused support from other countries. In the end Europe again could divert to situation of 5th-19th century when it was a collection of warring rivaling countries and brief alliances. In such situation for a country with less than 1 million people and weak economy and army has no place for existence. Latvia can only exist with strong united friendly Europe and strong supportive US. And weak Russia. It’s doubtful Russia and Latvia would ever achieve mutual friendship. So if Latvia cannot attain a concrete support from its western partners it’s doomed to lose at least its sovereignty to Russia.  This will be the challenge for this country for next two years.

Latvian inner political and economic weakening

 

Last year when talking about year 2015 I predicted the rise of nationalistic-isolationist populist government forming in Latvia itself. In result a government lead by Māris Kučinskis from Green Party and Latvian Farmers Party alliance was formed in early 2016. Māris Kučinskis with his lack of English skills keeps low profile in foreign gatherings, but his profile as Prime Minister is also very low profile. While he can be praised for being calm of steel nerves he also quite lethargic and has lead his government into flow of scandals and mishaps without affecting much of himself. The main points of conflicts in Latvian interior policy was grand issues with State Revenue Service and raise of taxes for small enterprises. In the spotlight of this is Daina Reizniece-Ozola a Finance minister a chess champion and a flashy talker. All year we saw her battling the corruption in State Revenue Service and taking sharp criticism for poorly managed raise for taxing the small enterprises. The latter issue brought to a bitter conflict with coalition partner liberal Unity (Vienotība) and even brought to a danger of collapse of government. So far the danger was averted and how long this inept government continues to exist remains to be seen.

On political ratings scale (as much of these ratings reflects the real political opinion is always a question) it has been successful for pro-Kremlin Harmony party (Saskaņa) Green Farmers and National Alliance and misfortune for liberal Unity. Unity lost its leading position gained since 2008, after poorly managed inner party coup that lead to collapse of Laimdota Straujuma government. Unity ratings went downhill and its long standing leader Solvita Āboltiņa had to resign from party leadership. Ex EU commissar Andris Piebalgs the new party leader tries to restore the parties fading image and power. Right now Unity’s poll rating is above 5% that would make a miserable fraction in newly elected parliament. Harmony party rating is 17%, Green Party about the same and National Alliance 7%. Plus the eccentric MP’s Artuss Kaimiņš party KPV and two elected small parties Latvian Regional Alliance and To Latvia from Heart is lagging behind 5% looking to take Unities votes.

If this continues there is a great chance of future Latvian government without a liberal party. Either its share of power would be minimal or it won’t be represented at all. There is a small chance that another liberal party called “For Prosperity of Latvia” (Latvijas Attīstībai) might take Unities place but that depends how its leader Juris Pūce would fair in Riga municipal election against incumbent Harmony party mayor Nils Ušakovs. Ušakovs who leads the capital city with scandals, failed street restoration projects and future projects facing major protests, who still has large support base mainly from Russian speakers, however his image is tainted by his offensive remarks towards Latvians and open support for Kremlin policy. But, knowing the population base in Riga he still has high chance to get clear third term as mayor of Riga.  Harmony party meanwhile in parliament functions as opposition party and supports the coalition when it’s bargained. Green Farmers and National Alliance as for now would not consider them in government at least for now.

In security policy Latvia seems to be doing well. The President Raimonds Vējonis an ex-minister of Defense is good negotiator with NATO so as the current Defense Minister Raimonds Bergmanis. An important step this year was the NATO’s decision to store permanent NATO’s international battalion in Baltic States and Poland. Lucky for Latvia the head of forces stored in Latvia will be Canada that has always been loyal to the principles of NATO and has taken part in many operations across the world. Of course the governments and policies can always change. Some people may say that these merely thousand troops would provoke and threaten Russia. First of all Russia has some 30 thousand troops stored in Kaliningrad region alone and these forces will be combined into 30th army next year. Russia has stored nuclear capable missiles in this region, plus the Russian forces who are constantly drilled for attack situations in Pskov and Leningrad region are in thousands. While this international battalion and all three Latvian armies would create a great losses for Russians in case of invasion in the Baltic Sates; they are useless for attacking Russia, so who these forces actually provoke Russia is what people saying these things cannot provide no explanation. While this small NATO force is no match for greater Russian armies, it serves as buffer; should one of its soldiers die from Russian hands it would provoke a conflict. However, every soldier and general serves the politician – as we talked here before – its Russian goal to defeat the West on political level before defeating it on military level. Weak politicians mean weak military in the Western world. So this rather small NATO force in Latvia by its means serves as no guarantee to our security and independence.

Latvian economy has been stagnating for last few years. While Latvia did made a tremendous recovery from 2008-2009 crisis by painful austerity policies, the continuation of these policies are rather stagnating economy that might start to enter decay next year. The overall economic and political climate is passively negative and opens door for populist political manipulations. For this reason a future without liberal party is possible. Latvia could be either ruled by alliance of populist right-wing conservatives and nationalists or it can be ruled by pro-kremlin forces. The next year’s municipal elections will show how strong are ruling parties and how strong is pro-Kremlin Harmony. Harmony could take over more cities in Eastern Latvia and the second biggest city Daugavpils that despite its Russian speaking minority has never had a Harmony mayor. For fading liberal Unity the only chance is to use the weaknesses of their conservative foes in the government and act as inner opposition that is doing now slightly successfully and try to achieve great results in Riga and other cities. Rather dangerous move is to bring down the government that again could lead to unforeseen consequences.

The challenge of 2017-2018

 

Some say history goes in circles and one wave replaces another. A wave of liberalism, multiculturalism in Europe and US seems to have dwindled and new wave of nationalism, isolationism and populism has taken its strength. To those who support this wave following lines are not of concern and they can stop reading this article. For those who fear this wave hear the following words. Stand your ground to this wave and don’t let it bring you down. Question, protest and resist policies made against collective security and seeking common ground with Russia. To seek a common ground with Russia as it has emerged today would be same as making common ground with Nazi Germany. It will be another Munich agreement in far worse consequences. Convince people to go to elections. Many of the populist voters are hard to convince as they vote by their emotions rather than reason. As more people avoid elections the higher chance for populists to gain upper hand. The US elections showed how crucial was the number of absent voters. Also support your army every way possible. When surrounded by militant forces calls for pacifism and unreasonable criticism of the home military brings no fruits. There are no civilians in the war for these forces. Question everything that comes from Russian or pro-Russian news outlets, as deception that turns into truth is their main instrument. Question everything that is in the social nets and even from your trustful state TV or relatives or friends. The amount of propaganda and disinformation these days would make Dr. Goebbels role in his grave. Do not give in to threats by terrorists and enemy armies by submitting to their demands or just give empty #standwithyou styled condolences. The time for that has passed. Empty words and hashtags have no power. Resilience and relentless to all the threats and dangers are the one that enemy fears off. Weakness it what it seeks and we cannot give him that weakness.

 The future for Latvia and neighboring countries has become more unclear and shady more than ever. Either Latvia would continue as independent prosperous country that gives others a reason to respect it and stand for it or it will become a pariah state that would be seen as expendable to other countries in the world. The war is what we fear the most. Riga could also turn into Aleppo if enabled so. In the end the war would determine if this nation has deserved and secured its position as independent country or it will go down in the annals of history as another lost kingdom succumbed by outside forces. If we will reach November 18 2018 with this warning as not fulfilled then the words said in this in this article would had reached their purpose.

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Russian Invasion in the Baltic States: Nightmare or Reality?

Baltic Invasion

Since 2014 the relations between Russia and NATO has reached the levels of Cold War. Russia has annexed Crimean peninsula from Ukraine  and wages proxy war in Eastern Ukraine. Russia has also made intervention into Syrian civil war. Russia has increased arms race and military buildup causing NATO countries to respond. Right now in NATO summit in Warsaw has decided to increase its military presence within Baltic States and Poland by deploying four international battalions in Baltic States under Canadian command while US will deploy 1,000 additional troops in Poland. In so Baltic region will become a NATO war base. This decision will create increase of Russian military near Baltic borders and inside Kaliningrad region. However, since 2013 Russia has already increased its presence and already outmatches and will outmatch the NATO forces in the region. Last two years in Baltic States the social tensions have been increased by the fears of war and Russian invasion. Is this a still far-fetched nightmare created by historic past and inner insecurity or a real threat and does the invasion already taking place by non military means? What are the possible scenarios for Russian invasion? What are the reasons for Russia to invade and not to invade the Baltic States? What consequences it would make for both sides. These questions will be discussed here.

NATO vs Russia. Balance of Military Power in the Baltic Region

Baltic States have population of six million and all three countries suffer from significant depopulation issues. So creating a sizable military force for all three countries is impossible task both financially and by means of manpower. Estonian Defense Forces has 6,500 active officers and 12, 600 in paramilitary Defense League.  In case of war Estonia plans to use 30,000  men and woman. Estonia spends 2,07% for military the required amount by NATO guidelines. Land forces have 2 infantry brigades, infantry is well equipped with NATO, Swedish, Finish and Israeli firearms and special weapons. The army motor pool is currently being expanded and consists mainly of infantry fighting vehicles.  Estonia employs compulsory service. Latvian National Armed Forces have 5, 350 active personnel. In case of war NAF could gather 50, 000 soldiers. Latvian infantry has modern firearms from NATO, Sweden and Israel with bit outdated artillery and only for last two years it has begun supplying its motor pool with infantry fighting vehicles.  Along army the National Guard is a sizable force. Latvian National Forces are currently most underfunded in the region with 1,4% spending on defense. For years the Latvian government has neglected the defense spending and only for last two years are trying to improve the situation. Ādaži training poligon has been improved and regularly hosts foreign troops on rotational training. Lielvārde Airfield has been fixed to host advanced NATO aircraft for landing. Latvian Navy is on path of improvement and is regularly involved in patroling Latvian waters   checking for passing Russian naval vessels. Latvia is the only country in Baltic States with professional military service.  Lithuanian Armed Forces  have  8,120 active land troops with two mechanized infantry brigades. Lithuania has the most advanced vehicle force and artillery. Lithuania has reverted from professional to compulsory service on 2015. The Šiauļai Air Base that hosts NATO Baltic Air Patrol mission is one of the most important military objects in the area. All three countries have small air forces suitable for training, local search and rescue missions and patrolling.

This means that all three countries are heavily reliant on support from NATO allied countries. Closest military ally with significant active force of 120,000 man and woman is Poland with its sizable Air Force and Navy. Polish forces have key importance in securing so-called Suwalki gap, containing Russian forces in Kaliningard and assisting Lithuanian army. Currently there are no constantly present NATO troops in the region. During last two years US, Germany, Poland, UK and other countries have sent their forces for temporary period for training. These mostly brigades and battalions stays in Baltic for few months then head to next assignment. That is about to change as Warsaw summit in July 9 2016 has decided to station permanent troops in Poland and Baltic States. In Latvia 450 a battalion sized Canadian contingent will arrive, in Poland 1,000 US troops will be stationed. This actually means the NATO Article five on invading allied country will come fully into effect as in case of invasion in Baltic States or Poland the stationary troops will be first to be involved. This serves as clear warning to Russia that if it would wish to undertake the invasion there would be almost no chance to avoid a World War 3 situation.

However, the size of newly stationed troops in region will be still be minimal. Russia had begun its buildup of military forces already before 2013 and has modeled conflict with NATO in its massive drills before conflict in Ukraine. Russia has divided its military in four main military regions with most of its European part is called the Western military district. Russia has gathered already more that 20, 000  men and woman in Western Military district and 10, 000 men and woman in Southern Military district in Caucasus region. A special territory of importance is Kaliningrad region. Formerly German East Prussia it was divided between Poland and Soviet Union on 1945. Soviets established forward army in naval base in more far west region of USSR to support Soviets stationed in Poland and East Germany and gain entry for Soviet Baltic Navy to Atlantic. That changed after 1991 when Kaliningard region became sandwiched between Lithuania and Poland cutting direct land supply routes. After both countries joined NATO the Russian army and Navy considered themselves surrounded in 15,100 km² small area. So steps were taken to improve regions defense. Now Kaliningrad has become the most militarized region in Europe with 225,000 military personnel (2014 data) the main Baltic Naval base in Baltiysk. The region hosts about 60 different military units, has functional airfields, early warning radar station and radio listening stations. The 941,873 large regional population affected by militarization and constant propaganda emphasizing 1945 victory and military strength is considered one of the most loyal supporters of the Moscow policies. Kaliningrad is also a vulnerability and burden for Russia. Since it cannot supply it and deploy more forces by land it its forced to use the only route along the Baltic Sea from St. Petersburg to Kaliningrad. This is done by air and sea transport. Since the narrow route is between Baltic State and Swedish and sea and air space the task is made difficult because Russian Air Force and sea vessels always impose secrecy on their routes and never allows to track them by use of radars. Transponders are always off and ships do not respond to identification calls from NATO Air force and Navy. For this reason the NATO Air Policing mission always have to take off to scramble and identify Russian warplanes and NATO navy must detect ships and submarines that passes by. This equal harassment so far has always ended peacefully, however we must take note of Turkish experience when SU-24 that supposedly entered Turkish air space was shot down on October 29 2016. Russians themselves are sometimes risking to cause a serious incident by making low pass fly by over USS Donald Cook giving US warning signal that Baltic Sea belongs to them.

Another point of argument is Belarus. Belarus is one of the most loyal allied states to Russia, not to mention Armenia. It has force of 62,000 active men and woman, sizable tank and air force. Whats more to add to importance is that Belarus hosts Russian troops and probably will host more as answer to NATO buildup. While Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko officially seeks a partnership with EU countries he has stated many times that in case of Russian conflict with NATO Belarus will side with Russia and take direct part. That means Belarusian army is a threat to Latvian eastern region of Latgale and to Lithuania particularly to Lazdijai and Druskinkai municipalities along the Polish border that have Belarusian border on the east and Russian border on the east. Presumably both forces could attempt to take the region to cut off Baltic States from Poland and Western Europe. So far there has been insignificant opposition towards Russian military presence among Belarusian society. That could change if economic difficulties deepen for Belarus.

Two nearby Scandinavian countries Sweden and Finland with sizable military, but are not NATO members are concerned over worsening security issues in the region. There are many in both countries who advice to join NATO or at least expand the cooperation with NATO. Sweden that has maintained long history of neutrality and now it as the crossroads. Russia knows this and ha begun campaign of intimidation against Sweden to weaken their will to join NATO. Finland has very long border with Russia and historical policy of keeping neutrality with Russia, however that may change at some point and how Finland would react to the assault against ethnically close Estonia? So involvement of these two countries remains a question.

Russia’s reasons for invasion. For and against.

Baltic States provides almost no valuable natural resources for Russia to plunder. Financial gains might be the worth, however Russia already gains from Baltic States by trade, transit and gas supplies. Baltic States are trying to shake off reliance on Russian energy export, most successful in this matter is Lithuania. That’s way as same in Ukraine, Russia’s goal is to prevent Baltic States independence on energy sources and that can be done by multiple means.

One of the main reason for invasions are political and emotional. Baltic States was possession of  Russian Empire and was under Soviet occupation for most of XX century. Moscow highly regarded the European cultured territory and invested much in their industrialization and militarization. Now what is left is mostly empty carcasses of abandoned factories and war bases but what was left as inheritance was large numbers of Russian speaking immigrants in Latvia and Estonia. Both countries in early nighties did crucial and disputable actions to deny citizenship for most of these people creating a massive disappointment towards Latvian and Estonian ethnic population. The creation of large non-citizen community had political reason – Latvian national parties feared that Russian speaking voters could elect anti-western political force that would disrupt Latvian and Estonian path to NATO and US. In last 20 years the naturalization laws have allowed non citizens to obtain citizenship and indeed most of them vote for parties supporting Russia. While still significant size of non citizens remain and they are material for Russian special foreign policy to support Russian speakers outside Russia.

The policy to support Russian speakers by civil and military means was already introduced  during Boris Yeltsin and fully deployed by Vladimir Putin. Moscow spends millions of rubles to create so-called Russian World a net of organizations committed to protection of Russian language, education and culture outside Russia. In Latvia some of these organizations like Non Citizen congress, Russian party “Zarya”, Russian National Union and others are openly rebellious towards Latvian government and have been persecuted by law agencies. In Georgia 2008 and in Ukraine 2014 Russia claimed that Georgians and Ukrainians are creating violent actions against Russian speakers and was obliged to protect them. In Baltic States only violent outburst was Bronze Soldier riots in Tallinn on 2006 when Russia instigated massive cyber attacks and sent the provocateurs from Russian border. With financial capability and willing agents Russia could instigate a violent provocation to get casus belli for invasion. So far from 2014 various pro-Russian and anti-Russian demonstrations have taken place with small incidents not enough to cause outrage. Russian speaking community nevertheless is important recourse for Russia and worry for Riga and Tallinn. Tallinn has made many successful steps for Russian speaker integration, while Latvia has its ups and downs. The largest parliamentary fraction in Latvian Saeima the Harmony is kept in opposition and for its ties with Kremlin the major Latvian parties had vowed to keep it out of power. While Harmony is charge of Riga and Rēzekne municipality and is plagued with corruption scandals it has enough voter support base. On 2012 Russian national radicals managed to hold referendum for Russian as second state language and failed. Russian and Latvian languages both have been politicized by both sides and is used in political argument.The latest surveys show that Russian speakers feel most endangered by Latvians in areas where they live the most like Riga, Daugavpils and Latgale region while in Kurzeme (Courland) and Vidzeme with Latvian absolute majority they feel almost no danger and support Latvian policies. So Russia has many reasons both real and imaginary to use military action to protect Russian speakers in the region. However, as today it seems highly unlikely that Baltic States would impose any repressions towards its Russian speaking community.

The third reason is common Russian political strife against NATO. Vladimir Putin and his ruling elite started its carrier during last decades of the Soviet Union and deeply regrets its fall. Many of them blames directly US and West for the breakup and still suspects US of plotting against them. Some authors suggest that Putin at first wanted to create good relations with US and UK by trying to create good impression on Tony Blair and George W Bush, but, was deeply disappointed when  they made steps that  contradicted his own interests. Such was Eastern Europe’s admission to NATO and western support for democratic movements in Georgia, Ukraine and Russia itself. Putin’s inner circle has always blamed all the democratic revolutions in former Soviet countries as CIA plot and deeply feels that such plot could be carried out in Moscow. Russian propaganda has created the story of Fortress Russia that is encircled by NATO and China. So to contain this “threat” Russia has increased its military strength and severely limited political freedoms since 2012. One of the Russian strategies is to stage a preventive war to prevent NATO to attack or expand further to Russian borders. Currently preventive wars are being carried out in Ukraine to prevent in ascension to NATO and EU and in Syria to keep the Damascus pro-Russian regime and do not lose valuable Tartus Naval base. If Russia would feel further endangered by NATO increasing presence  in the Baltic States it may choose a “preventive strike” to remove NATO “threat” from its close borders. Question yet remains and cannot be answered – does Kremlin really do believe its being threatened by Western countries or it’s just propaganda phantom for Russian people made to justify Kremlin foreign and inner policy actions.

Fourth last reason for invasion is the use of war as tool for mass control. Russian society was deeply moved by annexation of Crimea  and had its support for war in Eastern Ukraine and intervention in Syria. War was and is central part of Russian propaganda since Soviet times and it is enough to hold massive support for the region despite economic difficulties. A war against NATO an event both feared and propagandized would be last and final straw for Kremlin to keep support of its people should there be danger of economical collapse. Also its a “leave nothing behind us” thinking by some of the Kremlin people who would rather perish in war then be arrested or hanged during revolution. That’s why Russian military doctrine does not fear using nuclear weapons.

The main reason for not invading the Baltic States is obvious: they are part of NATO. Russia may gamble that for sake of their own citizens and soldiers NATO countries might sacrifice the Baltic States, but as NATO has decided on permanent presence in the region the military conflict with all the member states will be impossible to avoid. Secondly such action will result complete international isolation of Russia that only contribute to its difficult economical and political state caused by War in Ukraine. Thirdly  the failure of this invasion may in light variant my cause breakdown of regime in worse case – nuclear war.

Scenarios for Invasion.

There are two possible scenarios for invasion. First: full-scale invasion. Second: limited, non-direct like it’s happening in Eastern Ukraine. Full scale invasion would require much use of land, sea and air force. The main Russian objectives would be securing control over the air and blockade the Baltic Sea. Kaliningrad region would be used to blockade the land route trough Suwalki, Poland to Vilnius and Riga. Russia would not necessarily need to assault Suwalki itself, but rather secure control over Lithuanian towns of Kybartai, Marijumpole, Kalvarija and Druskinskai. First cities to fall would be Narva, Tartu, Balvi, Kārsava, Rēzekne, Krāslava and Daugavpils. Since Vilnius is close to Belarusian border it would be first Baltic capital  to be attacked. The question of further advance will determined in the skies over Baltic, in the sea and the Suwalki gap zone. If Russia manages to secure access points to Baltic States it has chance to overrun the NATO forces trapped in encirclement. NATO forces in every way has technical  and numeric advantage over Russia and using it NATO would eventually break the blockade and force Russia to retreat. So NATO objective is to prevent the Baltic blockade and cut off Russia from Kaliningrad. Air, Naval and tactical superiority is in need.

A logical question then arises what about nuclear weapons? First no country has ever had experience of using nuclear weapon against country that also have them. However, the common sense and most military doctrines is to use nuclear weapons after the warring country has exceeded all conventional means. Their forces are defeated and are on rout and country is on breakdown. That is one of the actions Russia would possibly choose. However, Russia has far-fetched doctrine of using nuclear detonation to prevent NATO for acting further. A scenario in mind that Russia would use tactical nuke against military unit or city and then in fear of nuclear war would try to impose ceasefire advantageous for them. However, such strategy is a gamble. One country might possibly not respond and seek solution while other fires tactical nuke in response, creating response after response leading to ultimate nuclear annihilation.  So using or not using nuclear weapons it’s a question of common sense.

Second scenario is limited invasion like the one that takes place in Ukraine. Russia could try to form Russian peoples republics in Narva, Daugavpils and Rēzekne and try to instigate revolts in Riga, Tallinn and Vilnius. Same as in Ukraine Russia has large Russian speaking population to use for their goals, many of them including some Latvians would support pro-Russian revolt. Russia might still try to blockade Baltic sea and Suwalki gap, but it will refrain from taking all countries completely. Border areas would fall for Russian control and there Russia would try to create environment for frozen conflict that would bleed out three Baltic States and NATO trying to help them. Such scenario may avoid discussion of using nuclear weapons, however, Russia would have hard time to prove that there are no Russian troops in Latgale.

The Consequences

  In both case of full and limited invasion Russia would fall under tougher sanctions and isolation. Russian populace at first would support the invasion., however basing on military success or failures it would change drastically. Victory if such is possible would lead to Russia as totalitarian fortress in opposition against western block for times to come. Defeat would cause an unpredictable series of events, like state breakdown, civil war and foreign intervention. Limited frozen conflict in Baltic states will lead to same Russian totalitarianism and isolation only to hope find agreement over the conflict. Failure and loss of national prestige will leave its regime vulnerable.

For Baltic States its means great loses of lives, destruction of infrastructure and economical breakdown. In some ways the limited invasion and frozen conflict would be more crucial as it would be  a constant bleed out.

For the world it would mean the danger of WW3. Not to mention fear of use of nuclear weapon, the conflict might spread to Poland, Caucasus, Moldovo everywhere where NATO and Russian troops might encounter each other. This would be major political and economical disruption for EU countries and US and UK that are already plagued by social disturbances. By all means such conflict would be highly disadvantageous for both sides.

The Covert Soft Invasion Already Taking Place 

The Chinese military theorist Sun Tzu has stated that the supreme way to win the battle is to win it without fighting it. This is soft power, propaganda, espionage and subversion of state and society. In many accords this is already taking place for many years and has intensified. Russia clearly is aware of all the risks mentioned above. Thats why its obvious goal is to create climate in the West and Baltic States where its leaders and people are unwilling to fight a war. First its massive emission of Russian propaganda in all languages using all possible ways. Often this has success like Western Media still has issues who are the armed people in Donbass – separatists, terrorists, or Russian soldiers and mercenaries. There are people who are against sanctions and don’t see the need for supporting Ukraine and Baltic States. What Russia needs is for such people to be in large numbers and elect populist, nationalist or far left politicians who leads against so-called establishment and will contribute to lifting sanctions, recognize Crimean annexation and weaken NATO. Such politicians gained their successes recently in UK and managed to disrupt the EU and cause divide within British society. In France, Czech Republic, Austria, Greece ect. there are forces who wish to come to power and are supported by Russia. In US Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump who has proved he almost no understanding about European and Russian policy wishes to achieve deal with Russia and question the need American involvement in  NATO.  Trump might be a gamble for Moscow to weaken the US by populist Russia sympathizing president. But, Trump is highly unpredictable person with zero experience in politics. If he keeps his America First! doctrine he would soon find that his deals with Russia are playing against him and will break them and cause problems for Russia. In similar way Napoleon and Hitler broke his deals with Russia after they found disadvantageous for them. In countries like Poland and Latvia where nationalistic conservative forces have taken power but are ideologically against Russia a another phenomena  is taking place while these forces are generally against Putin’s regime, they are very found of his conservatism and authoritarian methods. On both countries these forces are trying to sit on fence – while supporting military alliance against Russia they try to impose same laws that Putin would impose. Such situation is anomalous. The greatest fight for European hearts and minds are taking place now and will decide the events on battlefield if such takes place.

Conclusion

As it was discussed here war in Baltic States are not advantageous for both sides and will lead to plenty of worse consequences. So its fair to say that likelihood of such invasion is not possible. However, as long as Russia continues its war in Ukraine, does not end occupation of Crimea and continues intervention in Syria the danger of Russian military aggression stays.   As it was stated here Russia often does not need a logical or rational reason to start a war the decision can be based on fear, hate, power mongering and  oversight. Thus the war can be caused by simple unforeseen incident like in Sarajevo 1914 when few shots brought whole Europe to war that was waiting for it for last few years. So there is no reason to competently override the danger of Russian invasion. As long as aggressive, suspicious and totalitarian regime is in power in Moscow that relies heavily on its military success the danger will stay and should be considered and prepared for.

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Latvia 2015 A Year of Fright

Another year is brought to conclusion and new year will be born. Time again to sum up the main events that took place in Latvia during 2015. Last year 2014 I called the “Year of peril”. It was the peril of war coming from our eastern neighbor. That peril remained for rest of the 2015. However, a new trend showed up in Latvian public discourse. It was fear from terrorism, refugees and homosexuals that was stirred up by populist nationalist forces and forces with close ties to Kremlin. The last two months brought a another political crisis that is currently developing and it may have highly undesirable outcome. That’s why 2015 was the year of fright. In this post the main themes selected by me will be discussed in detail. This analysis entitles my personal opinion.

Major Malfunction in the Latvian Politics

The origins of this major malfunction can be traced in November 2013. After the tragic Maxima supermarket roof collapse that took away lives of 54 people the government of Valdis Dombrovskis resigned. Valdis Dombr0vskis from Vienotība (Unity) party had been Prime Minister of four governments since 2009. He resigned to take the “political responsibility” for Zolitūde disaster. Immediately, after his resignation a discussions begun of new PM from Vienotība who would replace him.   Solvita Āboltiņa a parliamentary speaker  and leader of the ruling party refused to take the PM seat. Vienotība placed bets on Artis Pabriks then a Minister of Defense to become a PM. However, president Andris Bērziņš  refused to appoint him for some personal dislikes. So as its happens in Latvian politics when top political players refuse to take a front position a person from the back door is placed forward. Laimdota Straujuma for many years served as secretary at the Ministry of Agriculture and as non party member was issued for Minister of Agriculture by Vienotība. She was not a public person and had less attention from the media. Now from January 22 2014 she suddenly became the first woman in Latvian history to lead the government. It was a result of a long practice of salon politics in Latvia.

Laimdota Straujuma first said that she intends to lead the government until 2014 elections. When election campaign came she was placed forward as PM candidate to lead the government for next four years. A brave words since never in Latvian history there was a government that lasted full parliamentary therm. Likewise when she formed the government with three parties – Vienotība, Green Farmers Union and National Alliance (NA) many predicted that her government will not last long. However, there was a reason her government was politically stable during first half of 2015 – from January to June Latvia was a presiding state over the  Council of the European Union. It was first time Latvia had such an important task in EU and it was done without much problems and without major strides. Thankfully, for Straujuma the conflict in Ukraine had gone to stalemate and  there was not much of pressure from Russia as some expected.

The troubles for Straujuma started after the end of EU presidency. First major issue for Latvian government was the refugee crisis. The war in Middle East and North Africa had caused a sharp influx of refugees coming to EU countries. Greece, Malta, Cyprus and Italy could no longer sustain hundreds of thousands refugees who are stranded in refugee camps akin to to go more wealthier Germany, France of Sweden that would offer work, living place in education. To maintain this ongoing crisis the EU leadership made plan that all EU countries must settle a number of refugees. Latvia as many other Eastern European nations resisted assigning quotas, but agreed to host a fixed number of people. At first the number was 250 people, few months later the number rose to 534 people. The coalition party National Alliance begun stiff opposition and objected to hosting any refugees at all. A large anti-refugee protest supported by the NA was hosted near the governmental building, causing tensions among the government. At one moment the Green Farmers also started to object the government decision and   insisted on parliamentary vote. Then the President Raimonds Vējonis came forward with ultimatum to government to stop quarreling and make a joint decision. In the end despite NA continued protests Latvia will have to host above 500 refugees from Middle East and North Africa next year. With them Latvia already has its own problem of illegal immigrants coming from Russian and Belarusian border. The Vietnamese, Afghans and others. The challenge of the future government is how to properly host and integrate these newcomers strangers to our country.

Straujuma also managed to sell the Citadele bank to Ripplewood foreign investors despite controversy, scandals caused by eccentric Minister of Healthcare GuntisBelēvičs with his reform plans and problems with law and teacher strike caused my mismanagement by Minister of Education MārīteSeile.

The event that triggered her demise was emerging scandal over Latvian national airline Air Baltic. Air Baltic survived the economic crisis and still stands as the biggest airline in the Baltic States. However, it needed an investor and investment advisory company Prudentia recommended a  German businessman  Ralph Dieter Montag-Girmes who promised to invest 52 million Euros with government adding further 80 million. The investor has connections with Russian Aviation industry and the deal could involve the purchase of Sukhoi Superjet planes for Air Baltic fleet. At first the Minister of Transportation Anrijs Matīss denounced this proposal and broke agreement with Prudentia. Then at the last hours before governmental meeting over Air Baltic funding he placed forward this proposal ” as the best of the worst decisions”. In midnight November 4 government approved this decision.

Then in the morning Laimdota Straujuma fired Matīss “for failing to inform the government about the Air Baltic funding deal”. The deal was approved not just by Matīss but by whole Laimdota Straujuma government – in that moment she missed her rightful moment of admitting a mutual mistake and resign. However, the show started and lasted till December 7. Straujuma was defiant and supported by president, however criticized by Solvita Āboltiņa and some other members of Vienotība. On December 6 Vienotība held congress that some hoped would bring change to decaying party popularity and some statement would be issued over Straujuma governments future. No such thing happened and the congress turned out to be parody of boredom. Nothing was changed, no new statements. Straujuma was still defiant. Monday came and on 11:00 Laimdota Straujuma visited president Vējonis and announced of her resignation. A salon politics had again made their score.

What happened afterwards is turning in to major political malfunction. Solvita Āboltiņa who possibly played leading role in this coup is the best of the worst candidates for Prime Minister. She was not elected in last parliamentary elections and only entered parliament when his party member Jānis Junkurs who came above her in voting results immediately resigned from MP seat in favor of Āboltiņa. Āboltiņa disgraced herself when she walked past protesting pensioners and booed them. All the apologizes could not save her fading grace and despite that all she was placed forward as the Vienotība top PM. But, NA took a strict stance that they will not enter government formed by Āboltiņa. A small group of Vienotība members in parliament the so-called “liberal group” also stood against Āboltiņa. So if Āboltiņa does not came up with some clever combinations to force her opponents to accept her she will be unable to form a long-lasting government without NA and facing a possible party split up. Vienotība has been framed by Dzintars Zaķis election fraud scandal, had suffered from misdeeds of Āboltiņa and lost its many stronger members. Valdis Dombrovskis now works in EU government,   Artis Pabriks is in EU parliament. Veiko Spolītis a popular leading anti-Kremlin policy advocate was fired from the party for drunk driving incident. Vienotība ratings has come to rock bottom to 5%.

So that may lead to government lead by two more popular former coalition parties. Green Farmers and NA. While their party leaders refuse to stand up to PM candidacy they have their own candidates from the salon. Green Farmers may propose Māris Kučinskis a political veteran who was top leader of now defunct Peoples Party.  NA may came up with Roberts Zīle – another veteran from the nationalist right specter who now serves as MP in EU parliament. The chances of Green Party lead government would mean a rising prominence of mayor of Ventspils city Aivars Lembergs – a leader of the Green Farmers who is also accused  of state forgery and corruption on the highest levels. Its also means a greater influence of Latvia nationalist conservative right who has become ill famous for its purity laws, anti-refugee policy and corruption on justice sector. Aivars Lembergs has been known as the opponent of NATO and sympathizer of Vladimir Putin. NA while being anti-Kremlin on paper is known for sympathizing Kremlin conservative policies and being outright EU skeptic. A new populist anti EU government like one in Poland and Hungary is on the rise and its also up to our new president Raimonds Vējonis to choose if he wants such government. He was also member of the Green Farmers Alliance.

“Ok, I must take a drink first!” 

Those were the first words of newly elected president Raimonds Vējonis when he came to speak after being elected as the President of Latvia. These words were probably spoken in emotional reaction to his election after four exhausting voting runs by the parliament. Surely a leader of the Green Party would like a refreshing still water. But, such slack attitude became signature of the new president. He took part in Latvian version of “Saturday Night Live” where he drove a bobsleigh, he took part in basketball game and many other public activities. His predecessor Andris Bērziņš who became 70 years old last year in these therms was a sharp contrast. Andris Bērziņš who had become annoyance of his mindlessness,  lack of fast decision-making and bad English skills was forced to abstain from placing his candidacy for second therm. Raimonds Vējonis was a long running Minister of Environment and then unexpectedly became Minister of Defense. When war in Ukraine started he took a tough stance  on Russia, called the events in Ukraine as the “Russian aggression”, laid out the plans for increasing militarization and helped to increase the NATO presence in Latvia. He condemned Aivars Lembergs outlandish criticism of NATO presence in Latvia and as president still takes a tough stance in defense issues. Will Raimonds Vējonis will  be responsible enough to avoid a Russia leaning EU skeptic government to came to power next year? That will be first major responsibility of the new president.

Latvia – one of the most pro-Kremlin member of NATO and EU?

The above statement may sound provocative. Greece, Hungary, Czech Republic all have state leaders who had leaned towards Kremlin or praised the Putin’s policy. Latvian leaders always have spoken out their support towards NATO and EU and called for support for Ukraine and Georgia. But, if we move from words to actions we may see a surprising scene-  Latvian politics in many ways are very pro-Kremlin. And that posses a danger to our state and society. Lets see what are the main points of Latvian pro-Kremlin policy.

One of the leading themes of Kremlin anti-western propaganda is that western liberal democracies have corroded the family values, has institutionalized perversion and that has led to complete degradation of the European civilization. And there are supporters of this thesis among members of the Latvian government. This year Latvia held annual Europride that was met with rapid homophobia within Latvian social nets, but did not lead to any violent protests as in Ukraine at the same time. However, the conservative “family support groups” gained support of the pro-Kremlin party Harmony who made proposal for “purity teaching” in the Latvian schools. The proposal aimed for censorship of learning content to limit mentioning things like homosexuality, transsexualism, and instead pushed on promoting on heterosexual relationships as only preferred choice of life. Harmony the opposition party gained support from NA who also thinks that liberals in Europe and especially in Scandinavia are degrading family values. In Estonia a gay unions are allowed while Latvian constitution only defines marriage between man and woman. After a load discussions between “purity law” supporters and opponents the amendments that opened doors for censorship in education  and beyond. Latvian politics had fallen prey for Russian anti-western propaganda and it was supported by most Russophobic party. Currently there are many active organizations in the country that are promoting Kremlin family values that will seek to affect the state laws even more next year.

Latvian resistance to Russian propaganda was also weakened by the Latvian coalition parties. The legislators made amendments to  radio broadcasting laws that insisted that radio stations that has 50% of its content in Latvian must broadcast fully in the state language. There are many Russian language radio stations in Latvia, some of them like “Russia Hit Radio” that has frequency in Latvia and its tied to Kremlin propaganda was the target for this law. Radio station “Russia Hit Radio” owner Uģis Polis started to protest and gained support from Green Farmers MP Armands Krauze who introduced now amendment that raised the Latvian language cap to 51%, meaning Uģis Polis station would avoid the full move to Latvian language. Such changes only would prevent Russian radio stations from broadcasting in Latvian and continue to relay Kremlin propaganda. And again this was supported by leading NA politicians. President Vējonis turned down the changes and sent back for review, however after “minor” corrections the amendment was voted in again. And that came after many speeches promising to limit Kremlin propaganda. Not only that also the NA and other party members managed to fire the chairman of National Electronic Media Council Ainārs Dimants who was considered in informal conversations as too liberal and allowing “homosexual propaganda” in the state media.

Latvian politicians also like to speak of increasing the security and gain energy source independence from Russia. Lithuania in therms of energy independence has taken a huge steps. Lithuania and Estonia have vastly boosted their defense and security over the years. Latvia has only begun boosting the long neglected defense budget after March 2014. Latvian Armed forces have bought first armed vehicles in 25 years which were used before by British army. Latvia has managed to rebuild its only military airfield in Lielvārde so US jets may land there.  Latvian Interior Affairs Ministry has issued plans for fence among the completely unprotected Russian border. With 100 meter gap in every 1000 meters to sustain “animal migration”. Bears, wolves, illegal immigrants and Green men rejoice! Luckily after journalists discovered this the idea of animal migration holes were dropped. But, that just shows how shortsighted is the Latvian defense planing.

In terms of energy independence the Russian Gazprom again gained victory in Latvia. Despite EU directive to cancel gas monopoly in Latvia that belongs to Latvijas Gāze company, half of its stocks belonging to Russia Gazprom and importing the gas only from Russia still kept its sole position. Formerly Economics sector was led by Vienotība who delayed the liberalization of the gas market. When the Ministry of Economics were taken over by Daiga Reizniece- Ozola from the Green Party she finally begun steps to remove Latvijas Gāze monopoly. And the former chess champion met stiff resistance from Latvijas Gāze leadership and was outplayed. Latvijas Gāze new president was former Prime Minister Aigars Kalvītis. His right hand woman was former chief of state chancellery Elita Dreimane who before was leading documentation against the Latvijas Gāze now went renegade and used all her knowledge against the state. Latvijas Gāze recruited many other former politicians and former state employees. So the liberalization failed and Latvia will be still solely dependent on the Russian gas supplies.

  Lastly its the growing notion of anti-EU sentiment boosted by refugee phobia. The refugee issue caused a outburst of racism in Latvian society. Racism, homophobia and antisemitism has always been present in the society but this time it was boosted by Latvian politicians. The anti-refugee protests and marches supported by NA were dominated by openly racist slogans. While pro-refugee activists raised arguments that Latvians were once a refugees after Word War II and were granted refuge in Europe and America, their received response that since Latvia refugees where white that does not count as an argument. Refugee phobiac’s blamed EU for forcing Latvia to accept “blacks” while forgetting that Latvia is committed to EU not just EU to Latvia.  Echos of Kremlin propaganda was clearly visible as protesters blamed Latvian Foreign Minister Edgars Rinkēvičs open homosexuality for such pro-refugee policy. When Latvian public choose young Latvian singer Aminata for Eurovision song contest many complained that a black singer was sent to represent Latvia. After she gained highest results in five years there was disappointment that Latvia has no white singer to gain such results. Racism and homophobia was not created by Kremlin. Yet Putin’s Russia openly promotes racism and homophobia and its good it has not begun openly promoting antisemitism. If Latvian politics and society are choosing to support Kremlin values there is no need to relay on support on defense from Kremlin tanks. Its our own choice if we want to create insecurity or security for us and our children.

Challenges for 2016

The main challenge of 2016 is withstood ever-growing Kremlin influence. Eiroskeptick government influenced by oligarch accused of criminal charges is a danger to our country. Our inability and unwillingness to host and integrate a small number of refugees is also an obstacle to our security. The dangers from two terrorist supporting forces the Islamic State and Russia’s Kremlin will grew stronger in 2016. There is possibility that after cease of the Mensk (Minsk) agreements the war may again erupt in Ukraine. While Russia is bombing Syria, lets not forget Russia is merely testing its weapons and gadgets for conflict in Ukraine, Belarus and the Baltic States. The falling oil prices and rapid decline of the Russian economy may increase the possibility of Russian involvement in more military conflicts. As war is one of the ways to avoid domestic failure. Latvia must sustain itself in the face of this threats. Have truly liberal pro-EU and pro-NATO government. We must resist the rogue influence and strengthen our security. This is our responsibility to generations ahead. Will we celebrate 100 years of Latvia and will we celebrate 200 years that is decided by our actions right here and now.

In the end of this long post that I hope the readers have taken note of many of the issues and warnings written here, I wish everyone a happy and safe 2016. 2016 is the year of the Monkey. Smart and versatile creature, also very cunning and manipulative and we are heard of the monkey with grenade in his hand. Lets be smart and versatile and  cunning to defeat our foes. To talk with you again in 2016!

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Latvia 2014 The Year or Peril

Another year is heading for an end. The last post of this year will be review of events that took place in Latvia during 2014.  In past I called the 2011 as the year or troubles, the 2012 the year of quarrels, the 2013 the year of struggles. What I choose for this year will be the Year of Peril. It was the peril of the aggression coming from our eastern borders, it was the peril of the new economic backslide and peril of perpetual troubles and struggles that started on 2009. Yet to start reviewing this year we must go back to November 21 2013. First it was the start of the protests in Kyiv, Ukraine that later affected our country and the Maxima supermarket roof collapse that took away 54 people’s lives  and lead to the collapse of the long-standing Valdis Dombrovskis government. Both these events that took place on the same time affected the Latvian inter and foreign policy. Around these two events the story of the perilous 2014 year will  be told.

Latvia and the Ukrainian Conflict

Last September I had chance to listen to the famous journalist and author Anne Apelbaum. The author of Gulag A History  and The Iron Curtain was no rushing to finish the book about the Golodomor the Great Ukrainian famine on 1932-1933. The book was delayed for many years because the publisher considered Ukraine as unimportant topic as nothing ever happens there that would boost the sales. So it seems that suddenly 2014 became actually the year of Ukraine. But, what started in Ukraine was no coincidence nor it was unexpected. The signs of brewing revolution and conflict were visible on summer 2013 when nation was discussing the coming EU Association agreement that the pro-Moscow president Viktor Yanukovych had promised to sign. At same time some publications were suggesting of possible conflict between Russia and Ukraine in case of moving towards west. One publication was called “Russia could blow up the situation in Crimea”.

The initial protests in Ukraine echoed in Latvian media and social circles. First support actions took place on December near the Ukrainian embassy. They were attended by 20-30 people, mostly the members of the Latvian Ukrainian Congress and the members of the National Alliance that expressed the support to the Ukrainian revolution. Yet the National Alliance  is pro-EU only for geopolitical reasons and their members like to play hockey with the Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko. Yet, every further Ukrainian support action gathered more people from all kinds of political parties and social circles. For the starting slogans of the Euromaidan were for joining EU, saying no to corruption and adapting the western values of democracy were appealing to Latvia. We had our barricades on 1991 were we stood against communism and destroyed the communist symbols. While Kyiv was celebrating the demolition of the Lenin monument in Kyiv we are wondering what happened to most Lenin monuments that were taken down on 1991. Yet it was not just about monuments and agreement signing it was a fight for independence and sovereignty. What the 2004 Orange revolution failed to achieve the Euromaidan struggled with blood – full freedom from the yoke of Moscow. Something that every Russian neighbor strives for and for Ukrainians it is matter of historical honor the original Kievan Rus against the Grand Duchy of Moscow – the remnant of the Golden Horde.

The Latvian official policy towards the Ukrainian revolution was supportive and it welcomed the new government that formed in the outcome of February 24 events. Yet what followed next – the Russian invasion and annexation of Crimea and further invasion in Eastern Ukraine started the year of Peril. Many call this ongoing situation as the “New Cold War”, originally this therm was coined by British journalist Edward Lucas on 2008. When Russia provoked Georgia in to war and occupied two of its regions. Later both Russian leaders Vladimir Putin and Dmitri Medvedev   later admitted that they planned this war to prevent Georgia from joining EU and NATO. Yet back then the Western leaders swallowed this event with shame. Soon the worldwide economic crisis shadowed the events that took place during summer. Yet the warning was given but not heard – Russia is always in for confrontation towards west no matter the costs. For the Cold War thinking was never given up for the Kremlin rulers.

To explain why Russia in confronting the west right now and has did for last 20 years is to tell the metaphor or the bear and octopus.  Russia likes to portray herself as angry bear. Yet, the bear mostly sticks to own territory and himself. He only goes outside his territory when  he runs out of food. Otherwise he is mostly peaceful if not attacked or disturbed. That is not Russia. Russia is an octopus. Its head and main body is within Moscow but its testicles stretches all around the Eastern Europe and Asia. It tries to hold all its neighboring countries within its grasp. Any attempt of trying to break free is met with hostility and anger. The octopus is also afraid of others trying to cut of his testicles and reach for its head. Without all of its captured assets the Moscow would be powerless and left to decay. And that’s why Russian propaganda is  telling tales of encircled fortress, the hunted bear and struggle to prevent aggression. But, from the history we know that all foreign invasions in Russia from the western side started as response to Russian aggressive policy towards the west. Since the octopus is trying to hold all whats around him this the reason why Russia did not respect the sovereign independent policy of Georgia and Ukraine, while open intervention in neighboring country is “brotherly help”, the involvement of the western countries in the Russia’s neighbors is viewed as aggression against Russia itself.   Therefore Russia views all its border states as their sphere of interest that no other country can mingle. And it’s not like EU and NATO really wants the Ukraine, Belarus and Georgia for their sphere of interest. Ukraine needs west more than west needs Ukraine. And the reason is the claws coming from Moscow.

Vladimir Putin may have prevented Georgia from fully joining NATO and made the same harder for Ukraine. However, his most crucial failure was to prevent the Baltic States from joining the Western block. The Baltic States joined NATO and EU on 2004 leaving Russia frustrated and trying to bring their claws back ever since. The Russian aggression in Ukraine suddenly raised the question of the Latvian security. The Latvian political games had managed to remove the influential minister of defense Artis Pabriks from the main political scene. The often hawkish politician for years called for boosting up the neglected Latvian defense budget. It never reached the NATO 2% of the state budget standard.  After collapse of the Valdis Dombrovskis Pabriks was called as one of the potential candidates for the Prime Minister. However, the President of Latvia Andris Bērziņš rejected him. Later he was elected as member of EU parliament.  The current minister of defense Raimonds Vējonis is a leader of the Green Party. A seemingly unusual choice for such post yet nothing is its seems in the Latvian politics. Vējonis has taken his job seriously and taken steps to boost our military budget. He has brought more NATO troops in Latvia, even tanks from US. However, the army itself needs capable army. The lack of armed vehicles is compensated by buying used ones from UK. The army needs new anti air radars to intercept low flying Russian KA-50 attack helicopters that were stationed near the Latvian borders. Even more crucial is the training of the new servicemen, the support for the National Guard and so on. As Latvia just cannot relay on Estonia that has barely reached 2% defense budget requirement and  slightly more equipped Lithuanian army. Furthest neighbor Poland is boosting up military while Sweden is just waking from confusion of the Russian submarine within its waters. Russia is constantly testing the Baltic security by doing almost daily air force flights near the Latvian air space. With their transponders off they force the NATO Baltic patrol planes to take off to intercept them. Recently even the old but majestic TU-95 strategic bombers took flights within the Baltic Sea. Recently Russia has brought Iskander missiles to its Kaliningrad enclave for “drills”. All this has made opposite effect – NATO is bringing even more resources to ensure the Baltic security.

The Latvian inner security is also under question. The underfunded police force and seemingly slow and invisible special services raised doubts. The Security Police had change in leadership – the ongoing general Jānis Reiniks was replaced by Normunds Mežveits. Trough out the year there were various attempts by locals to support terrorists in Eastern Ukraine.  From raising donations to sending actual recruits. While Estonian security service had exposed many Russian agents, the Security Service and Constitutional Defense Bureau had found none. The other important question was the Residence Permits in exchange for real state property program for Russian citizens. By buying real estate in Latvia the Russian, Chinese or other non-EU citizen could gain residence permit within EU countries. The National Alliance had campaigned to close it down for years, sparking concerns of danger to the state security. The defenders of this policy says its helps the crisis hurt real estate to survive and that some of the residents from Russia are opponents of the Putin’s policy. True that small portion of Russian dissidents has left Russia for Latvia, for it’s a country with high use of Russian language and that the former Lenta.ru banned by Putin is now working in Riga as Meduza.ru. But its only a small number. One part of the Russian investors only buy the real estate but is not living there, renting or selling to others and giving no other investments to Latvian economy. Russia a country with official anti-western policy but with tons of investments and property within EU and US is a danger to Latvian economic and inner security. So far this residence permit security has not fully abolished.

Latvia joined the EU and US joint sanctions against Russia. The Russian response – to ban the import of EU food products, meat, fish and dairy products affected some of the Latvian companies. Not only that the Lithuanian and Polish apple importers were forced to send their production to Latvia alarming the local apple sellers. But, the local apple harvest was poor this year anyway.  While most Latvian traders accepted this and tried to compensate the losses others openly protested therefore boosting the Russian propaganda. One of the most prominent complainers was Major of Riga Nils Ušakovs. Leader of the mainly Russian speaking voters party left unreasonable rants about the sanctions in twitter and said that he is going to Moscow to “beg” to allow at least some of the Latvian products. His main concern was his special Rishij Dvorik Latvian food stand that grew empty after sanctions. Despite his visit to Moscow were he met Dmitri Medvedev and Grand Patriarch of the Moscow Orthodox Church   Kirill his Rizhkij Dvorik remained empty and went to rock bottom after Russian currency crisis.

Ušakovs also sent apologies to the blacklisted Russian singers and actors who expressed support for the Russian aggression. Among them Josif Kobzon, Valeria and others. In the end International Music festival “New Wave” hosted by the Russian television decided to leave Jurmala resort and move somewhere else presumably Crimea. The Ušakovs rants about sanctions and blacklists raised another issue- the issue of the pro-Moscow parties within Latvia. The Harmony Center now known simply as socialdemocratic party “Harmony” found itself unconformable with the Ukrainian issue. While confirming they support the Ukrainian territorial integrity, they were reluctant to denounce the Russian invasion and broke the association agreement with the United Russia party – the leading party in Russia. While Harmony balanced as usual the other one the Latvian Russian Union openly supported the Crimean annexation. Their leader Tatjana Ždanoka – the communist orthodox from the 1989-1991 came to Crimean “referendum” as EU observer. Despite the condemnations Ždanoka was re-elected as member of EU parliament openly pushing the Kremlin interests within Brussels. Her party however failed to reach any success in the parliament elections. The other more radical forces the movement “Zarya” (The Awakening) run by far right Ilarions Girss and Jevgēņijs Osipovs were preaching that Latvia should become another Donbass. Throughout the year   various Russian ideologues entered Latvia as part of the organization Media club “A-3” and expressed the ideas of Russian world and Euroasian state. Also the newly elected member of the parliament Ingūna Sudraba raised doubts about her connections with the Russian secret service and Kremlin elite. More bizarre was here connections with bogus religious group “Urantia” that believes in reptilian conspiracy against Russia and Putin as the holy savior. The invisible yet so visible reach of the Moscow octopus takes many passages to be described but this is a short glimpse.

The Collapsed Roof of the Latvian politics

The Maxima disaster left great shock to the Latvian society. The radicals wanted heads to roll immediately. However, the Latvian old saying of responsibility – Everyone is responsible, therefore no one is responsible again worked. The president Andris Bērziņš who called disaster as major mass murder had to approve his rhetoric.  After harsh talk with prime minister Valdis Dombrovskis, the latter resigned. Dombrovskis who had been Prime minister of several governments since 2008, lead the country trough the crisis and pawed Latvia to Eurozone had to resign ending an era. A question yet remains who stands behind his resignation that seemed unintended, – the president, parliamentary speaker Solvita Āboltiņa or the oligarch Aivars Lenmbergs   or all of them together will not be answered now. It will take time to answer what happened on late  November 2013. Right now Dombrovskis serves as European Commissioner for the Euro and Social Dialogue.

What was left after  Dombrovskis was political vacuum before 2014 October general election. As mentioned Artis Pabriks was turned down by the president or he was let down by his own party. The leader of the Unity party Solvita Aboltiņa refused to take PM office. The grey cardinal was growing unpopular within the voters so placed forward a compromise figure – the non party minister of Agriculture Laimdota Straujuma. A discrete careful woman the Straujuma became the first female PM in Latvia.  As the anti-lemberg Reform Party went into decay, the Lembergs lead Green Party Union returned to coalition and took over many important sectors such as Defense. Straujuma firstly considered herself only as temporarily Prime Minister until elections in October.

However, the power gap in Unity party was clearly visible. Two most prominent leaders Dombrovskis and Pabriks were elected to Brussels. The other members were not strong and influential to lead the country. So Straujuma remained as PM candidate for the elections and now serves her second therm.  The elections became nightmare for the party leadership. The party chairman also the chairman of the parliament (Saeima) Solvita Āboltiņa was not elected. The ongoing red-haired speaker has grown infamous for here arrogance and schemes. However, let’s be honest – the Latvian society dislikes strong powerful woman in office. But, Āboltiņa did not surrender. Jānis Junkurs the member of the Reform Party separatists, rather quiet and mysterious young man, now turned to Unity to run in elections. With his self funded election campaign he gained more points than the Grey Cardinal with Red hair and made in to parliament above here. But he was absent from the public scene after the election. Then on the day when the  new parliament was called he announced his resignation from the parliament. In such matter according to election laws the Solvita Āboltiņa replaced him. Leaving no comment the Junkurs left the scene and founded new company in Hong Kong.   Many obviously pointed that he was forced to give his seat to Āboltiņa. She soon took the seat of the National Security Parliamentary Commission showing that foxes never give up.

The National Alliance gained extra seats in the elections. Known as champions in conservative ideology they were known as champions in justice corruption. Of course nothing is proven. Only that both of their ministers for Justice and Regional Affairs were rejected to receive state secrets. So were taken out of game. Still Nationals secured the control over justice after the elections, and also gained the most valuable parliamentary speaker  seat that was taken by Ināra Mūrniece.

The Green Farmers – alliance between Latvian Farmers Union and the Green Party and the Ventspils city party of Aivars Lembergs benefited the most from the Dombrovskis downfall. Their main opponents the Reform Party had went into collapse. The Green Farmers returned to coalition and secured their old sectors – agriculture and welfare and also conquered the strategically vital ministry of defense and ministry of economy. The later was taken by chess champion Daiga Reiznience-Ozola.

The Harmony party failed this year. Despite winning the election by percent, they did not gain enough seats to form coalition. Nor they were asked to because of the  Ukrainian conflict. Their potential allies – For Latvia With Heart only gained 7 seats. More interesting was the new Regional Party elected member Artuss Kaimiņš. Outspoken, aggressive, often rude actor, he owned videoblog that was aired on radio for some time, where he interviewed his guest in the most bombastic way now entered politics. His main flagship was the Maxima disaster investigation on parliamentary level  and exposure of the corruption and injustice. After few months he was denounced for his drunk fight in rock cafe.  Its remains to be seen if he will evolve into Latvian Alexander Zhirinovsky.

Latvia so far rather successfully survived the national currency Lats transition to Euro. The patriotic nostalgia of the old beutiful currency soon was washed away by the war in Ukraine, as it was more important to be part of the strong global currency. The Russian propaganda tales  of the Eurozone collapse now is dwindled away by the real collapse of the Russian ruble. Now our neighbor Lithuania will enter Eurozone on 2015 making Baltic states under single currency.

Latvia – challenges for the 2015

Latvia will become the presiding nation of the EU. The EU presidency during these turbulent times will be crucial. In both of state security and international prestige. Russia openly harassed Lithuania during its presidency this year. Informational war and military threats are potential danger. Latvia has been exposed to the Russian propaganda for years and it will grow even more. Great concern is if Russia is planning more than informational warfare but a hybrid warfare using gaps in our security. Such actions can be dangerous for both Russia and Latvia as we are the NATO member. Another danger is looming in our neighboring country Belarus. For 20 years this country has been ruled by authoritarian president Alexander Lukashenko whose semi-socialist economy is depended on Russia. As the ruble in Russia went into decay the over inflated Belarusian ruble took a hit. Lukashenko is looking to avoid maidan in Belarus, by balancing between    Moscow and Europe and his people. Same as Yanukovych the Lukashenko maneuvers will end at one point leaving country in danger of either revolution or the Russian incursion. Since Belarus is our neighboring country that also should be considered as the fourth Baltic State, any major disturbance especially if its involves EU and Russia will be the prime interest for Latvia, Lithuania and Poland. Certainly the Belarus could be potential hotspot and game changer on 2015.

  The economical development is at constant caution. Latvia seemingly recovered from the economic crisis on the end 2013. We entered Euro, the remnant of the 2013 crisis the Citadele bank – the former Parex Bank that state had to nationalize was sold to foreign investors this November. The economical and energy dependence on hostile Russia must be limit if not cut all together. Russian economy is collapsing because of the western sanctions and the falling oil prices. Greater economical ties and cooperation must be established with Ukraine and Belarus. Russian economic sanctions are likely to increase on Latvia during 2015. On 2015 Latvia will be on the front of the international rivalry between the West and the Moscow octopus. The 2015 will be the year of the Goat. Goat is symbol of smartness, independence and wealth. Yet Goat is also the symbol of the Devils face. The Goat year previously was 1919 and 1991 the two very crucial years for Latvia. Lets be smart and independent and also courageous on year 2015 and reach new milestone and achievements.

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Latvian Parliamentary Elections 2014

Next Saturday October 4 Latvia will held elections for 12th Saeima the – Latvian parliament. Last elections took place 3 years ago on September 17 2011. They were emergency elections since former president of Latvia Valdis Zatlers dismissed the parliament and it was approved by the voters in the poll. In Latvia to dismiss the parliament a referendum is needed to approve the president decision. So the 11th Saeima was result of the Presidential Decree Nr.2. The results of this decree was varying. The pro-Kremlin party Harmony Center gained 31 vote majority. Valdis Zatlers with his Reform party came in second with 26 seats, leaving past leaders Unity (Vienotība) with 20 seats. The National Alliance and Green Farmers Union also made it. However, Harmony Center could not run the government and was left. in opposition. The Unity PM candidate Valdis Dombrovskis resumed his office and held the coalition together with Zatlers Reform Party and National Union. Green Farmers accused of being led by oligarch major of Ventspils Aivars Lembergs was thrown in to opposition. As it was one of the main election slogans to get rid of the oligarch parties. On November 27 after Maxima supermarket disaster Valdis Dombrovskis resigned and government was formed by Laimdota Straujuma from Unity. This time the Green Farmers came back in coalition, as the Reform Party was in path to disintegration. Indeed Zatler’s vision on his Decree Nr.2 had failed. At the first day after forming government his six elected members left the party. Zatlers was not elected as Chairman of Saeima and was assigned to lead the National Security Commission. His two most ambitious reformers Roberts Ķīlis Minister of Education and Edmunds Sprūdžs the Minister of Environmental Protection and Regional Development failed to achieve his goals and resigned. As Zatlers became sick with cancer he lost the direction of his party and in result the party was disbanded. His most successful members joined either Unity or National Alliance. So in these elections one of the leaders of the 2011 elections will not stand. But 13 parties will stand in 2014 elections so this article will describe who are the main contestants, what they offer and what they have done.

Unity (Vienotība)

Unity for last 5 years have been known as the leading party in the Latvian politics. From 2009 to 2014 Valdis Dombrovskis lead the country as the Prime Minister. His consequent approach on getting country out of the economic crisis was not without difficulties and protests, but in the end he came in history as the one man who brought Latvia to Eurozone on 2014. He survived the Saeima dismissals and coalition rumbles, but the Maxima Supermarket disaster on November 21 2013 made him resign to take the political responsibility. He was replaced by Laimdota Straujuma a Minister of Agriculture a rather silent personality to Latvian public and media. At first it seemed that Artis Pabriks from Unity a popular Minister of Defense would take the PM office. As the Russian aggression in Ukraine was looming he seemed obvious choice. However, President of Latvia Andris Bērziņš turned him down and instead named Laimdota Straujuma as the Prime Minister. She was chosen as compromise person that would lead the country until next elections. Now she is the candidate for PM from Unity again, but she does not exclude the possibility to give PM seat to another Unity member such as Andris Piebalgs   European Commissioner for Development at the European Commission. Straujuma is pragmatic and careful person, however sometimes she shows timidly and lack of concrete stance when regarding the security and international affairs. As Pabriks and Dombrovskis is now in EU Parliament the two past leaders are not on the election list.

The Unity election list leaders are Straujuma, Solvita Āboltiņa chairman of the Saeima, Edgars Rinkēvičs the Foreign Affairs Minister, Anrijs Matīss and Jānis Reirs in four election districts. Solvita Āboltiņa has been the chairman since 2010. She has been described as the Red Cardinal of the Latvian politics not just because of her red hair. A master of the salon politics she has great influence on coalition work and assigning important offices. A question yet remains if her backdrop politics serves good for her party and our country.

Unity has accumulated many former Reform Party front-runners. Edgars Rinkēvičs a professional and responsible Minister of Foreign Affairs  has shown strong supportive stance towards Ukraine and has reacted venerable national stance towards aggressive Russian policy against Latvia. Rihards Kozlovskis a Minister of Interior Affairs another ex reformist despite many issues has lead the Interior security carefully. His main issues are constant underfunding of the police force, slow investigation of the Maxima disaster and problems with Latvian Secret Services who are accused over lack of actions regarding the countries security. Vjačeslavs Dombrovskis an ex reformist took the office of education and now serves as Minister of Economy is a professional politician. His weak side is rather questionable relations with her adviser Anna Kononova an ex press secretary of the Riga Town Council. Not only the fact that she worked with pro-Kremlin Major Nils Ušakovs for many years, but also because of rumors about “too close” relations between her and Dombrovskis. Indeed this was not the only case in past 3 years when ministers and their advisers became too close and state issues may have been decided in bed.

 Apart from that the Unity has many pros and cons to be voted to rule for next five years. Being ruling party for five years has made a bit like its past rival Peoples Party, a desire to control every aspect of the state affairs, arrogance and intrigue – all that naturally comes when opposition party becomes the ruling party. Also the sacrifice of two most strongest leaders – Artis Pabriks and Valdis Dombrovskis is a great cost. Artis Pabriks showed greet effort towards national security in his long-term as the Minister of Defense. In the time of international crisis around, Latvia lacks strong leaders. The President Andris Bērziņš and Laimdota Straujuma lacks significantly towards the leaders of Estonia and Lithuania. So if Unity really wants to rule the country during these rough times, it should set intrigues and ambitions aside especially within the inside the party.

That same can be said about the National Alliance. Formed from two national conservative forces – For Fatherland and Freedom and All for Latvia the party has grown more powerful in last two elections. But, the party has been plagued by the scandals and controversy. Its have been the champion of the minister resignations and unfilled threats to bring down the government if their demands are not met. The Minister of Culture posh businessman Žaneta Jaunzeme-Grende who viewed this sector rather from financial side  then cultural, got in endless conflicts with various players of the sector. The most hardest player was the Latvian National Opera. Despite having worldwide reputations, best opera singers on the world stage, the opera experienced financial issues. Grende’s attempts to address the issue ended with bitter conflict with the opera director Andrejs Žagars. In the both Žagars and Grende was fired from  their office. She was replaced by long time ministry employee and professional Dace Melbārde who now runs from NA as the front-runner.

Because of the Reform’s Parties demise the Ministry of Regions and Environment was handed over to NA. Einārs Cilinskis a veteran in nationalist politics took over the office and was quickly dismissed because he disobeyed the PM. On March 16 the annual remembrance of the Latvian Waffen SS Legion took place. Because the “referendum” in Crimea took place on the same time, there was fear from Russian provocations. Straujuma warned no state official to take part in the commemorative march in the city center. Cilinskis who always participated in the event came anyway and was fired. He was replaced by Romāns Naudiņš a businessman who failed to gain allowance for the state secrets.

More gloom was the NA leadership over the Justice. Gaidis Bērziņš with experience in this field resigned after he refused to discuss the Jewish property restitution. Was this just a cover up reason to hide his corrupt dealings with Ventspils reminds a speculation. He was replaced by Jānis Bordāns. Bordāns did not re activate the Jewish property problem, instead he even attended some of the Jewish events such as concerts or Holocaust events. But, his main issue was the insolvency reform. It started to became clear that insolvency sector had great influence on NA. Many of the insolvency lawyers were the members of the party. As insolvency sector sometimes proved to be corrupt and unlawful, Bordāns tried to reform by introducing changes in the law. He was then excluded from his own party and asked to resign. The official reason was his close ties with Democratic Patriots society that wanted to became a party. He was accused of insubordination. The real reason as said by many was because he stepped on the parties interests. As the insolvency business has a shallowly grip on the party. However, as only the PM can ask minister to resign, Bordāns stayed in the office until Dombrovskis government resigned.  Left without party and ministry Bordāns raced to create his own New Conservative Party. That however seems  to be an ill fated choice as his new political force has less chance to reach above 5% barrier.

The new Straujuma government assigned NA leader of the Riga Town Council opposition Baiba Broka. She quickly dismissed all the proposed changes in insolvency – no wonder as her professional past was associated with it. But, then a grave problem came- she did not received permit to access the state secret from Constitutional Defense Bureau (SAB). SAB a top counter intelligence agency refused to explain why, so Broka resigned. A path reached the start again as Gaidis Bērziņš took the office again. If NA wants to lead the Justice sector further it must explain the voters the controversy over its problems with insolvency sector.

Another thing to explain for NA is why its front leaders Raivis Dzinars and Imants Parādnieks from All for Latvia has refused and continue to  refuse to take important offices. Instead the minister seats are allocated to For Fatherland and Freedom old timers and people from outside like Žanete Jaunzeme-Grende. Their PM candidate is EU parliament deputy Roberts Zīle another old-timer, who will rather stay at Brussels than really take over the country. As Baiba Broka who seemed a good candidate for  PM has demised from the scene the question of leadership from NA is important. Another question- if one of the All for Latvia ideologues Jānis Iealnieks, who is known for his dubious remarks about Norway massacre on 2011, and love for Christmas ginger bread swastikas will not cause embarrassment on the international scene.

Green Farmers Union was on high heels on 2010 when it formed a powerful two-party coalition with Unity. A year later Valdis Zatlers declared a crusade against oligarchy. His hit list was Ainārs Šlesers, Andris Šķēļe and Aivars Lembergs. Lembergs a oil business tycoon, a major of port city Ventspils for 20 years is also on trial for state-wide fraud. His Venstpils Party is also part of the Green Farmer Alliance. After 2011 election the party lost its power and came only with 13 seats and was dropped into opposition.  Lembergs who was stripped from his administrative powers continued to lead the  Venstpils city and was victorious in the 2013 municipal elections. Reformist Edmunds Spūdžs tried to legally oust him from the office, but failed.

After Dombrovskis resign, Green Farmers came back to coalition and took over the Ministry of Agriculture and Ministry of Welfare. A rather exotic choice was to assign a Green Party leader Raimonds Vējonis as the Minister of Defense. The ex minister of Environment affected by the Ukrainian crisis begun to make calls for boosting the military budget, buy a new equipment and prepare for war.   Meanwhile Lembergs openly criticized the NATO, wrote open letter to NATO leadership about the bad behavior of the NATO sailors in Ventspils. He was then condemned by Vējonis. But, in the end Lembergs was again put forward as PM candidate.  With promise to end constant “obeying” to EU and NATO.

Harmony Center (“Saskaņas Centrs”), the main force of the Russian speaking community and leftist forces now enters as the Socialdemocrat Party “Harmony”. For years its main line that they are social democrats, that stood not just for Russians, but for all people in Latvia. Meanwhile the PM candidate Nils Ušakovs enjoys a posh lifestyle, spends the administrative resources for his political rallies and has led the state capital with deficit for many years. Ušakovs played significant role on 2012 two state language referendum of which he endorsed. His endorsement for referendum organized by Russian national radicals boosted massive support for the two state language movement. The referendum failed as 80% voted no, but Ušakovs achieved disharmony rather than harmony. When Latvia joined EU sanctions against Russia, and Russia in return banned the import of EU products, Ušakovs agonized over the closure of the Riga food store in Moscow. He blamed the Latvian government and went to Moscow to “beg” not to close the Rizhkij Dvorik completely. In process he met the Russian PM Dmitry Medvedev and Russian Orthodox Patriarch Kiril II. Also in the interview with the liberal Russian TV Dozhd he said that Vladimir Putin is the best one for Latvia, as if he would be replaced by Alexei Navalny who would be danger to the neighboring countries. Since Putin’s invasion in Ukraine, such talk seems ridiculous. Some 2 years ago placing Vladmir Zhirinovsky or the Russian ultra nationalists as scare crow not to replace Putin seemed to work. Now it does not work anymore. Harmony Center has failed to state what is happening in Ukraine and why they have association agreement with Putin’s United Russia party.  So they cannot no longer hide that they are pro-Kremlin party.

There is another pro Kremlin party that does not even hide it. Latvia Russian Union the ex Party for Equal Human Rights in Latvia, has taken the ultra nationalist spirit currently in Russia.  Their leader Tatjana Ždanoka a EU parliamentary deputy went to Crimea as “independent observer” for the Crimean referendum. A supporter of the Eastern Ukrainian “separatists”, she even went to Scotland to compare their legal referendum to Crimea one. The candidates of this party constantly warns  the voters of impeding Crimea in Latvia, if they would not be elected. Latvian Russian speakers are no strangers to Russian nationalist propaganda. There are many people here that would greet the Russian tanks in the same way some people greeted tanks in Crimea.

Ingūna’s Sudraba’s party is the biggest question and intrigue of this election. An ex State Controller, outspoken critic of the state funding and state policy after leaving the office her political future was in question. She was named as a potential PM candidate from the Harmony Center. Her connections with the Russian Secret Service was in question for many years. Then on same day when Dombrovskis resigned she came out with announcement to enter politics and form her own party. When she learned the news that Dombrovskis has resigned she fainted. That was just the beginning of her political crash course. Her new party is called  To Latvia with Heart “No Sirds Latvijai”. Party issues rather leftist messianic ideology to free Latvia from poverty and injustice. Her party gained large funding from unclear sources. Many of her party front-runners left the party because of the secrecy of the funding sources. If that was not enough Sudraba’s connections with Russian radicals and Russian agents popped up on the news one by another. Sudraba denied every each accusation as black PR. Even a video where she goes to private plane that belongs to Russian FSB agent, she denied that she is in that video. And then even more bizarre discovery was unrelieved yesterday. She has connections with a spiritual center “DVS Urantija” that preaches that Putin is a “child of the light” who fights against reptilians and grays. A kind a popular conspiracy theory in Russia, that describes that USA and EU is lead by aliens, and Russia is the only remaining spiritual country that fights of this invasion. That could explain rather messianic feel of Sudraba election campaign. As Bible has warned of the danger of a False Prophet, the Orthodox baptized Sudraba should bear the warning.

There are other more  smaller political parties, that could reach the 5% barrier. The ex Unity politician Einārs Repše has made political pro business movement (For the Development of Latvia) Latvijas Attīstībai. His second comeback seems rather doubtful as people had enough his time in politics and his liberal pro business utopia does not fit today reality.  Regional Alliance (Reģionu Apvienība) is formed from politicians within Latvian towns and municipalities. While their main  place of advance is the Municipal elections they hope to gain seats in the Parliament to affect local politics. That remains in the hands of the voters. Meanwhile Ainārs Šlesers a political veteran has never missed a chance to take place in elections. His last two elections was a failure, but it seems that a man has constant election frenzy. This  time he comes with party United for Latvia (Vienoti Latvijai). And he comes together with old timers PM Ivars Godmanis, Aigars Kalvītis, Jānis Jurkāns and others. Will people vote for the symbols of the old pre-crisis times, a times of spending corruption- Šlesers might also guess the answer – no. But, what is elections without Šlesers and friends?

Without mentioning the small fringe party lists, this concludes the story of the election contestants. This might be the most important elections in our history for decades. Will the right-wing Latvian parties keep the power and unite against the common enemy in Russia? Or the pro-Kremlin parties under “spiritually guided” Inguna Sudraba will take over? So all Latvian readers are urged to vote and make their votes responsible. The following weeks will be crucial for our country. Another west and east choice will take place. As Latvia is on the frontline of the New Cold War, the Latvia must choose between our independence and security or a Latvian Maidan.

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Latvia and the New Cold War

Caricature by Gatis Šlūka

Caricature by Gatis Šlūka

On 1985 when Mikhail Gorbachev started his perestroika policy few could imagine that after few years we will live again in independent state of Latvia. And after some 20 years again few could imagine that we are heading towards new kind of Soviet Union. The president of Russia has fully exposed his covertly long run anti-western agenda by annexing Crimea and unleashing a rhetoric of confrontation. We are entering an era of instability and security chaos possibly resulting in war. To answer who is to blame for this? We all by our own.

When Soviet Union collapsed on 1991 the new government by Boris Yeltsin was unable or unwilling to make cardinal revolutionary changes not just in Russian economy, but within every aspect of Russian society. The old soviet elite kept their position the so-called nomenklatura adapted to  new “wild capitalism” environment. In result an oligarchy controlling Kremlin politics  appeared that made the things the old soviet ways and were above anyone else. Truly a shock reform policy was needed to switch to free market economy, but in society with less experience of free market policy the reforms served only small part of the society. A shock reforms were needed in Russian political ranks- complete de-sovietization – where all forms of communist parties are forbidden, the communist rule is condemned and unmasked at full-scale. Instead for many the collapse of the Soviet Union was a major geopolitical disaster not a beginning of the liberation for the Russian people.

An important thing that was not achieved was the shake up or even liquidation of the KGB – the Soviet Secret Service. Also old soviet army leaders kept its positions. The KGB a guardian of the Soviet power did everything to save USSR from collapse even 1991 August coup. After it was shamefully divided as Federal Security Service (FSB) and the External Intelligence Service (SVR) its employees were scared of being persecuted or fired. But Boris Yeltsin administration did nothing – on 1993 Yeltsin brutally crushed his political opponents with tanks and year later started war in Chechnya against  national separatists. True the 1993 White House defenders waved Red Banners and Chechnya separatists used terrorist tactics, but this again made the Russian security services on the top. Yeltsin was dependent on so-called siloviks – the security elite and the oligarhs and to gain his reelection a lot of he had to sacrifice. On 2000 to keep his family safe from corruption charges he had to succumb to security elite and choose Vladimir Putin a ex KGB agent his new successor.

We may say that Putin has no personality and he seemed plain and shallow. So they spoke the same about Stalin and Hitler. What he and his close KGB veterans wanted is to regain the lost legacy of the KGB and the Soviet army. They did not believe that the collapse of the Soviet union was a result of the peoples will for freedom and democracy – no it was done by the western secret agencies and shallowly forces of the western capital elite. Putin on 1996 in TV interview had warned about the dangers of over powered security apparatus as a threat to civil liberties. Now he was working to prove this.

Meanwhile the Western world looked at Russia with either amusement or positive interest. Some political annalists like Francis Fukuyama rote major books about the end of the history, where the whole world will turn to liberal democracies and reach greatest progress. The US president George Bush issued a time of the New World Order where US will take the leading part. Instead the 1990ies were marked strong US will for isolationism. US Democrat President Bill Clinton wanted to avoid the direct force of the US military. In result the failed military actions  in Somalia and Afghanistan showed the Islamic radicals that US is vulnerable to  attack. US still had abnormal fears about Russia, based on the lack of insight and understanding. Both US and EU wanted from the former soviet countries to do things they were unable off. The point made by Samuel Huntington that eastern countries can successfully modernize, but not necessarily westernize became the ultimate reality. Macdonalds in Moscow, Russians riding German BMW’s and using Microsoft Windows did not change the fact that Russian politics are still ruled by ex-soviet elite. Who also modernized – mansions in UK and Italy, children in western schools, but the same old anti-western view.

When on 2000 Putin came to power his hands were still too short on establishing a dictatorship. Russia still had economic problems from the economic default. But, after 2001 9/11 the oil and gas price started to rise up. When the Republican administration in contrast to light democrats unleashed two full-scale wars in Middle East the oil prices skyrocketed. An invasion in Iraq proved to be unnecessary and poorly planned in the spirit of the Neo-Conservative Tom Clancy novel thinking where US forces easily crushes the enemy and makes democracy failed. But, it was a gift to crisis driven Russia, dependent on  oil and gas exports. It worked for Leonid Brezhnev once and it worked for Putin also- oil price boosted economic growth gained within Russian people. Also the restarted war with Chechnya allowed the FSB to start attacking free press and civil liberties. In the same manner as Stalin purged the members of the Leningrad elite and replaced them with his friends from Tsaritsina front, the Putin purged the Yeltsin supported oligarchs like Berezovsky and Mikhail Khodorkovsky.   Using the legal nihilism – the abuse of laws, Kremlin elite took over nearly all TV, Printed press and radio. However, the old soviet elite underestimated the power of the Russian internet. By capitalizing on oil and gas companies the Putin regime made an authoritarian regime with formal elections and opposition.

At first such situation was ideal for restoration of the Soviet Union. However, Russia was unable to prevent NATO military intervention former Yugoslavia and the collapse of the pro-Moscow regimes in Georgia, Kirghistan and Ukraine.  We can speculate that the western countries did funded the opposition and made foreign funded NGO’s. But, when Russia indiscreetly funds pro-Kremlin movements in post soviet countries and install many pro-Russia NGO’s its described as “brotherly support”. On 1920-1939 the Communist Internationale  made a network of communist parties and legal cover movements within Europe and US looking to overthrow the capitalist governments. And after 1991 the same was done in the name of the Russian speakers outside Russia. This scheme worked in Kazakhstan, Armenia and Belarus. But, it failed in Ukraine on 2004 where large part of people with education and modern outlook managed to prevent ex gangster from Donetsk Viktor Yanukovych to take power. But, according to Kremlin it was not the general will of the people it was the US dollars that caused this. According to soviet leader the people are not supposed to stand against the ruler and are to week to decide themselves.  But, such thinking is generally wrong. If the large numbers of people are ready to stand against tyranny and injustice, support from abroad only boost their will. But, the will to fight against injustice is made by the one who creates injustice.

On 2008 Putin and Medvedev devised a plan to punish Georgia for wanting to join EU and NATO. By making provocations Georgia was pushed into war and lost large part of their territories. But, the goal to cause the downfall of the Georgian government failed. And even the new Georgian leadership has not changed its goal to join EU one bit.

2008 war should had opened the western eyes. Instead last year president of US George Bush who knew the Putin’ s soul only managed to stop Russians from advancing Tbilisi by sending US fleet and the French president Nicola Sarkozy sacrificed Abhazia and South Ossetia to Putin.  The new democrat US president Barack Obama who again tried to make a soft appeasing effort only showed to Russia his weakness and ignorance. First by failing to understand that Medvedev is only de facto ruler of Russia and avoiding Putin, then issuing a “reset” policy. Barack Obama policy was more inclined towards Middle East and the Arab Spring failing to understand the heavy Russian involvement there. Russia was interested in both keeping the Arab dictators and both in disorder as it continually boosted the oil prices. The extensive support for Iran and Syria is needed to keep US in the Middle East as long as possible and have a free hand on the Eastern Europe.

And now we came to Latvia. What Latvian elite and society has done to understand the Kremlin threat. As a country with largest Russian speaker population and Soviet armed forces until 1994, Latvia juggled between harsh nationalistic policies and liberal multiculturalism. In such way the great divide was done within Latvians and Russian speakers and within Latvians themselves who were divided in national conservatives and liberals. Such political divide has kept until this day. While Latvian political elite has successfully managed to prevent from pro-Kremlin forces to take power, the inner struggle has weakened the Latvian political elite. In result a constantly unstable right-wing coalition in contrast to unified pro-Kremlin opposition. Many Latvian parties no longer serve their names they hold. Reform party made no real reforms, Unity failed to unify Latvian politics and the National Alliance serves against the national interests. Green Farmers serves the interests of oligarchs and various radical sectarian movements on both sides only adds to struggle. Latvia is a “small Ukraine” with divided society, corrupt ineffective administrative bureaucratic apparatus  and weakened army.

 In such situation when Kremlin uses force against its neighbors what will happen to Latvia? It’s a rather interesting that despite such divide we have managed to avoid violent outbursts like in 2006 Estonia. But, then again Estonia is a step forward in national policy than Latvia. Latvian army devoid of basic APC’s, airfield still in construction and most of the focus on missions in Iraq and Afghanistan can protect its own citizens. It  always strikes me when on national parade Latvian infantry marches on desert camouflage uniforms – if according to some officials Latvian Army only is needed for missions in the Middle East and Africa then they are at least incompetent. In case of invasion can we only relay on Estonia, Lithuania and Poland and far away NATO forces? But, can our neighbors relay on us? And can our soldiers and people relay on politicians some of them who have very doubtful political views that will make appropriate decisions in case of emergency? These questions are very serious.

US, EU and Latvia must place end to wishful thinking  and deception. Russian investments have overfilled the capital of the UK Londongrad (London) and reached the Westminster palace. Brussels and Strasbourg is full of Russian agents. The sacrifices must be made to prevent further KGB regime advance to Western Europe. Today it is Russian bribes in Paris, tomorrow it will be tanks marching trough the Arc of Triumphe.  The Crimea, Kharkiv and Riga are not that far. A mobilization of society like in Cold War against the common threat against the western values are vital to our survival.

Now about the “common Russian threat”. No the whole Russian nation are not our enemies. Large masses marched in Moscow to protest against the invasion in Crimea. Russia has growing large educated society who wants to enjoy the same way of life as in EU and the US. No doubt that even without the EU and US sanctions Russia will face great economic difficulties. And these people will not want to give away their personal freedoms and money to regime willing to reset to Cold War. The civil resistance against the shallow and old-fashioned neo soviet regime is needed to be supported by Latvia, US and EU. And countries like Ukraine and Belarus that are on the frontline of the new iron curtain requires or support to gain freedom from pro-Kremlin thug regimes. The Putin’s policy of mixing Third Rome idea with Soviet imperialism leads Russia and its neighbors in to collapse. So for next years to come Russia, Ukraine and the Baltic states should and will became the field of struggle between new forces of democracy and personal choice and old forces of totalitarian regimes and collectivism.

We are living in times of great changes. It is our personal responsibility in  every way big or small to take part in these changes, and work for the benefit of the free world. The first Cold War was a fundamental fight between two political systems. This New Cold War is a fundamental fight  to defend what had conquered many years ago and prevent from the return from the empire of evil.

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Ciltvaira – The Lost Ship of The Latvian National Navy

Ciltvaira_ship

Ciltvaira before WW2

During the times of the Soviet Occupation the Soviet propaganda made movies like “Tobago Changes its Course” (1965) that depicted the mutiny on the Latvian trade ship Tobago on the behalf of the new Soviet government. The story was based on real Latvian naval cargo ship “Hercogs Jēkabs” (Duke Jacob)  whose captain choose to subordinate to the new Latvian Soviet government and from Cavalyo, Peru tried to sail back to Latvia. Despite the attempts of the Latvian Embassy in Washington to cancel its route to USSR and the temporary arrest, it made its way to Vladivostok. It was renamed Sovetskaya Latvia  and used for ammunition transfer. After the war it was used as prisoner transfer ship in the Sea of Okhotsk.  But, this was one of the rare examples that soviets could use. In fact most Latvian trade navy ships defied the soviet order to turn back to occupied Latvia. They still kept its allegiance to the Republic of Latvia and stayed on the western shores. Despite the fact that Latvia had no government in exile, only legitimate diplomatic embassies in US and UK, the western powers refused to turn over these ships to USSR. Most of these ships could not survive the war.  One of them was Ciltvaira.

Latvia as a country with long coast line with the Baltic Sea had long naval traditions. Before the arriving of Crusaders , the ancient Curonian and Livonian tribes made first trade voyages and raiding parties. At the start of the 19th century when serfdom was abolished, Latvians started to form their own naval schools and built their ships. At the start of the 20th century  under the flag of the Russian Empire Latvians had some 550 vessels, stationed at the ports of Ainaži, Rīga, Roja, Pāvilosta, Liepāja and Venstpils. The main Latvian shipbuilding company was Austra, at Ainaži the well-known Latvian intellectual opened a naval school. Liepaja had constant passenger routes to New York. On 1914 within the Latvian ports 333 ships were registered.

The World War I made great damage to Latvian ports, as Germans captured the Liepāja and Ventspils harbors and limited access to Riga port. Third of the Latvian ships were lost. Then on 1918 after World War I ended and Russian Empire had ceased to exist, Latvian sailors had chance to raise the flag of the new-born Republic of Latvia. First vessel to do so was a steamship Maiga, next was Saratov that was used by the Latvian Provisional government. After the end of the War for Freedom, Latvia regained 8 ships from Petrograd (St. Petersburg), but all ships taken by Germany were lost. Latvians begun to form their own trade fleet. Most Latvian steamers were used before WWI, only new built one was icebreaker Krišjānis Valdemārs.   Latvian vessels carried Latvian goods – wood, flax, butter and many other products. Passenger lines went to London, Hamburg and Stockholm.

Latvia was just beginning its naval modernization when the World War I broke out. Latvia had 103 trade ships on January 1939, leaving the ship on duty was forbidden.  On 1939 no ship was lost as many them carried their duties across the seas as usual. On June 1940 Soviet Union occupied Latvia and started took over all Latvian navy. Those who were stationed at Latvian shores had no real chance to resist. But, those who were sailing at the oceans had a choice – go back to Latvia and became part of the USSR navy or keep the Latvian banner within western shores. Both choices were grim. The Soviets could arrest some of the sailors and send the ships far away, but as there was no Latvian government in exile, only still acting diplomatic envoys, staying on Latvian side was dangerous because Latvia was no longer recognized as de facto sovereign country.

The freight steamer Ciltvaira was built on 1905 at the Sunderland, Great Britain. Before it came under the Latvian banner it was known as Twyford, Vironia for Estonia, President Bunge for Belgium and Endsleigh for Great Britain again. On 1935 it was acquired by Latvian owners J Zalcmanis, J Freimanis and K. Jansons. The first captain was K A Kaktiņš, later M A Osis, A P Galdiņš and K Šķenbergs. Ship made numerous long routes to North Sea, Mediterranean Sea ad Soviet Northern harbors. When Word War II started the ship stayed within the waters of the Western Hemisphere.

When Latvia was occupied by the Soviet Union, none of the Western powers did not rush to acknowledge this as legitimate act. The most strongest response was from US , that issued a resolution that condemned the annexation of the Baltic States. Latvian gold assets  worth of 17 890 422 was frozen and Latvian consulates continued their work. 8 Latvian ships were within the American shores and stayed under the Latvian flag-  “Everasma”, “Abgabra”, “Reģents”, “Everelza”, “Evaragra” and “Ķegums”. And also Ciltvaira.

The captain of the Ciltvaira M A Osis received an order from Latvian Soviet government to head to Murmansk, Soviet Union. Osis decided to follow this order.  However, Latvian consulate demanded to stop the ship until the change of the captain. This was done at the port of Rio de Janeiro and ship was taken to US. Captain Osis and 12 other sailors went back to Soviet occupied Latvia and were involved in the World War II activities.

Captain of Ciltvaira Augusts Galdins circa 1945

Captain of Ciltvaira Augusts Galdins circa 1945

The new captain of the Ciltvaira was Pēteris Augusts Galdiņš. Born in 1904 at Mazsalaca – a small port town at Vidzeme region. Took part in the War for Freedom within Latvian ranks, wile being only 14-year-old. Was a steerman at Evarlda, and Ķegums from 1939. While at Argentina, he received order from Latvian US Envoy A Bīlmanis to head to Uruguay and take over ship of Abgara, that also was prevented from leaving off to Latvia. On 1941 he was called to captain the Ciltvaira. Galdiņš acquired US  residence permit and later US citizenship and had US long freighter captain diploma. After Word War 2 he worked in Panama-Scandinavian lines and on Chinese ships.

Photo from NY Times - 1/22/1942

Photo from NY Times – 1/22/1942

The Ciltvaira was operating under the US commands, but as Latvian ship. After Germany declared war on US, the German U-boat submarines started to hunt for US trade ships that sent goods to Great Britain and USSR. Since Latvia was occupied then by Germans, they had no respect for the Latvian banner if it was within allied command. On January 19 1942 Ciltvaira was heading from Norfolk to Savannah with a load of paper. At that point the new captain was Karlis Šķembergs. The German U-123 sub led by captain Reinhard Hardegen spotted the ship and struck it with a torpedo at 5:00 AM. Boiler room and room N0.2 was flooded. Two men were killed instantly –  firemen: Carl Gustaefssen and Rolf Semelin. Radio Operator Rūdolfs Musts was left stuck in his room due to the door being after the hit. The ship had no escorts and no arms to defend itself and was not part of the lend-lease program.

Captain Šķembergs ordered to abandon ship. The survivors abandoned ship in both port lifeboats when she settled by the head with a list to port after the boiler room and #2 hold were flooded. About 14.00 hours, the wreck was sighted by the northbound Coamo which avoided the area at full speed as she was in danger of being torpedoed herself, but the American steam tanker Socony-Vacuum stopped and picked up all survivors. Because the Ciltvaira had remained afloat, the master and eight volunteers returned to the ship while the tanker brought the rest of the crew to Charleston, South Carolina. At 16.00 hours, the Brazilian steam merchant Bury arrived and her master agreed to take the ship in tow for Norfolk. Four men from the Brazilian ship went aboard to help the few men with the ropes after the tow parted several times and they finally got underway. However, the following evening the salvage operation was stopped because the ships were only proceeding at 2 knots or less and all men taken off and eventually landed at New York.

The USS Osprey (AM-56) arrived and stood by until the ocean-going tug USS Sciota (AT-30) could resume the tow. What happened next is somewhat sketchy. One report indicates it remained afloat and drifting for two days. Another report states a number of different variations from it be torpedoed a second time to ship while being towed lost in heavy seas. The current location of the wreck is unknown.  Its claimed to be 120 feet under near Nags Head diving center and filled with marine life.The community of Nags Head has a street named after the Ciltvaira.

Latvian sailors who refused to leave the doomed ship as still wanted to save her, were greeted as heroes.  New York Times 22 January issue wrote that Latvian men being two years on the sea still wants to go back to the ships, no matter how many of them could be lost as long as Latvia regains its freedom. The Charleston newspaper “The News and Courier” made interviews with rescued sailors who showed no fear of German subs and said that  next time their ship will be armed. Meanwhile the Nazi controlled Latvian newspapers in Latvia, condemned the Americans for using Latvian ship and placed it on the another successful German U-boat hit list.

The Ciltvaira was not the last German victim. Five of the eight Latvian ships were sunken.   One was sunk by Italian submarine. Many Latvian and foreign sailors abroad the Latvian ship lost their lives. Only two Latvian ships made it to the end of the war. The ship “Regent” lost 14 out of 35 men. Everelza was sunk taking 19 men with it. Ķegums survived the war as convoy ship, but crushed at thick fog on 1948 at the Bay of Biscay. The Evaragra was hit by torpedo on 1943 but survived.

This was a price for lost Latvian independence and the non recognition policy. While US was unable to liberate Latvia from Soviet occupation, it did anything it could to defend  the Latvian patriots and their property from the Soviets. Many of them did not live till 1991 when Latvia regained independence. In the pictures are the personal belongings of the Ciltvaira captain Augusts Pēteris Galdiņš. A silver platter that the crew of the Ciltvaira gave to Gustav in honor of his leadership and heroism for standing up to the Russians, a platter hastily but skillfully engraved by hand with a knife, dated before the Ciltvaira made it to the US but after it defected. It was presented at a time when quite literally the Ciltvaira, the 7 other vessels and the Latvian Embassies in Washington, DC and London were the only elements of the Latvian sovereignty. The platter is stamped and I think purchased in Newfoundland, perhaps as they made their way to the US, and was hand-carved and presented to Gustav before they landed in the US. It now belongs to his close family friend in US. Galdiņš retired on 1970 and lived in Santa Clara California where he died on 1988.  Pictures are posted by his permission. Latvians are said to be a farmer nation, but Latvians are pretty much can be called as sailor nation. The Ainaži naval school was one of the beginnings of the Latvian national awakening and naval carrier was a motivation for many young Latvians to explore the world and gain education. Today Latvian sailors sail on board of many countries ships. Many Latvian owned vessels are under third party country flag like Panama and Cyprus. But Latvian naval life is still active and its history of the heroic Latvian sailors of the WW2 is story to be remembered.

The Ciltvaira silver platter

The Ciltvaira silver platter

 

Ciltvaira platter 3

Selected Sources:

Ilze Bernsone, Inta Sīpola. (2003) Latvijas jūrniecības vēsture : 1850-1950 . Riga.Rīgas vēstures un kug̦niecības muzejs

http://www.diena.lv/arhivs/sos-glabiet-musu-dveseles-11643392

http://sunkenshipsouterbanks.com/ciltvaira.html

http://www.uboat.net/allies/merchants/ships/1267.html

http://www.uboat.net/boats/u123.htm

https://latvianhistory.wordpress.com/wp-admin/post.php?post=2609&action=edit

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